El desengaño de Soros sobre Europa

Una entrevista con George Soros, muy interesante. Destaco lo que dice de la UE y de la Unión Bancaria recientemente acordada, que se ha alabado tanto aquí (ver editorial de El Mundo el sábado). La opinión de Soros refuta completamente el optimismo del solar patrio.

Soros se declara resignado sobre el Punto alcanzado en la UE. Se declara convencido en que el euro está para quedarse. Esto es aparentemente bueno:

"George Soros: If you mean that the euro is here to stay, you are right. That was confirmed by the German elections, where the subject was hardly discussed, and by the coalition negotiations, where it was relegated to Subcommittee 2A. Chancellor Angela Merkel is satisfied with the way she handled the crisis and so is the German public. They reelected her with an increased majority. She has always done the absolute minimum necessary to preserve the euro. This has earned her the allegiance of both the pro-Europeans and those who count on her to protect German national interests. That is no mean feat.

So the euro is here to stay, and the arrangements that evolved in response to the crisis have become established as the new order governing the eurozone. 

Pero, 

"But the prospect of a long period of stagnation has not been removed. It’s generally agreed that the eurozone is threatened by deflation but opposition from the German Constitutional Court and its own legal departments will prevent the European Central Bank (ECB) from successfully overcoming the deflationary pressures the way other central banks, notably the Federal Reserve, have done...

... The prospect of stagnation has set in motion a negative political dynamic. Anybody who finds the prevailing arrangements intolerable is pushed into an anti-European posture. This leads me to expect the process of disintegration to gather momentum. During the acute phase of the euro crisis we had one financial crisis after another. Now there should be a series of political rather than financial crises, although the latter cannot be excluded."

This confirms my worst fears. It’s the nightmare I’ve been talking about. I’m hopeful that the Russian invasion of Crimea may serve as a wake-up call. Germany is the only country in a position to change the prevailing order. No debtor country can challenge it; any that might try would be immediately punished by the financial markets and the European authorities.

Sobre la Unión Bancaria: 

"Soros: In effect, the banking union will leave the banking system without a lender of last resort. The proposed resolution authority is so complicated, with so many decision-making entities involved, that it is practically useless in an emergency. Even worse, the ECB is legally prohibited from undertaking actions for which it is not expressly authorized. That sets it apart from other central banks, which are expected to use their discretion in an emergency.

But Germany was determined to limit the liabilities that it could incur through the ECB. As a result, member countries remain vulnerable to financial pressures from which other developed countries are exempt. That is what I meant when I said that over-indebted members of the EU are in the position of third-world countries that are overindebted in a foreign currency. The banking union does not correct that defect. On the contrary, it perpetuates it.

Schmitz: You sound disappointed.

Soros: I am. I left no stone unturned trying to prevent this outcome, but now that it has happened, I don’t want to keep knocking my head against the wall. I accept that Germany has succeeded in imposing a new order on Europe, although I consider it unacceptable. But I still believe in the European Union and the principles of the open society that originally inspired it, and I should like to recapture that spirit. I want to arrest the process of disintegration, not accelerate it. So I am no longer advocating that Germany should “lead or leave the euro.” The window of opportunity to bring about radical change in the rules governing the euro has closed.

Schmitz: So, basically, you are giving up on Europe?

Soros: No. I am giving up on changing the financial arrangements, the creditor–debtor relationship that has now turned into a permanent system. I will continue to focus on politics, because that is where I expect dramatic developments.

Lo cual creo totalmente acertado. El euro se va a quedar. Lo cual no quiere decir que se han solucionado los problemas. El euro se queda porque Alemania ha permitió, eventualmente, a Draghi  desarmar las expectativas de riesgo de ruptura. Pero lo ha hecho mezquinamente, no para siempre, sin romper la dinámica de países acreedores y deudores. Esto parece contradictorio, pues podría pensarse que los ataques contra el euro podrían volver si los peoblemas de fondo (los países deudores) no se resuelven. No se van a resolver, pues la receta aplicada, austeridad y más austeridad, no resuelve el problema. Pero mientras exista el convencimiento que en último extremo volverán a dar un susto a los mercados, el euro se va a quedar... Hasta que un golpe inesperado, como una victoria de Lepen, suscite dudas. Como áureo referido de. Mitterrand de 1992 sobre Maastritch... O un inesperado referéndum catalán... 

Lo que nos lleva a la derivada política. La política es de nivel nacional y de segundo orden en eficacia, pues satisface a cada vez menos gente. El Frente nacional lepenista es un ejemplo de que el descontento se agrupa y emerge. España, como en tantas cosas, está a la cola del pelotón de la renovación política, metida en el lodazal de un mundo paralelo y casos o que sólo se agita en Twitter, un mundo en el que los personajes no se enteran de nada y se mienten a sí mismos, y buscan la felicidad en hundirse unos a otros en la charca nacional con saña. De eso se aprovecha el PP para prolongar la mentira y quedarse con la merienda, que por cierto, es cada vez más magra. Así que coincido con Soros, menos en lo inesperado.