China: el yuan cae, caen las reservas, la deuda aumenta

Las reservas de divisas chinas siguen cayendo para defender al yuan. 

China’s central bank has burnt through nearly half a trillion dollars in foreign reserves to support its currency since August, despite criticism it has betrayed its commitment to let market forces drive the exchange rate. 

Yet sources close to the central bank say the intervention, while costly, was necessary to maintain economic confidence and prevent a disorderly depreciation that could have ripple effects far beyond the currency. 

The People’s Bank of China has spent about $473bn in foreign exchange reserves since it surprised global markets last August by changing the way it sets its daily guidance rate for the currency, according to Financial Times estimates based on official data. The August move sparked fears that China would permit or even actively encourage a sharp devaluation, leading to a wave of renminbi selling. 

Mintras, China sigue aumentado su deuda. Eso hace aumentar las dudas sobre  valor del yuan. El BPDC intenta frenar la caída gastando divisas. Gráfico del FT.

 

En otro artículo leemos que el FMI ha dado un aviso serio a China sobre la deuda de sus empresas, que son corporaciones públicas. 

In preliminary findings from its annual review of the country released today, the IMF said Beijing should batten down and impose budgetary constraints on its state owned enterprises, consider liquidating some of its weakest firms, and restructure companies in a bid to regain control over ballooning levels of credit growth.

Hitting 145 per cent of GDP this year, China’s corporate debt levels have soared as economic growth has moderated, with its combined debt burden now hitting a record 237 per cent, writes Mehreen Khan.

 

El aumento de la deuda ha permitido mantener el crecimiento prometido, lo que mantiene contentos a los mercados, que solo se fijan en el PIB, pero no en su sostenibilidad (que es la de la deuda). Pero una parte d ese crecimiento es contable, de unas empresas públicas que piden inflar sus cuentas a au gusto. Bueno, veremos cuánto dura. Un dato básico es lo que haga la FED de aquí a fin de año.