De Barry Eichengreen

Opinión de Barry Eichengreen, economista e historiador, sobre la crisis del euro y la relevancia de la próxima cumbre de este mes (en Spiegel). Coincide 100% por la expresada por Münchau (aquí, Es-la-politica-estupido, la última) en tantas ocasiones. Pero he de aclarar que creo que el problema principal es monetario. La diferencia no es nimia. Aunque se arreglase la solvencia de la banca europea, quedaría el riesgo monetario. Repito una observación: Europa, la única zona monetaria única, es la única que no ha resuelto sus problemas de la crisis. Sigue igual de estancada o peor. Como dice Eichengreen en la entrevista, al final, La FEd se le pueden achacar muchos fallos, pero ante las crisis lo hizo bien y trabajó duro:  (The Fed's record over the past decade has been patchy, to put it politely. In the period before the crisis hit, the Fed was a complete failure as a regulator. It didn't see the risks. But when it came to fighting the crisis, it made the right choices and worked hard.) 
Yo lo resumiría así: para que no haya problemas monetarios, Alemania tiene que estar estancada.

 SPIEGEL: Professor Eichengreen, you have spent many years studying whether the European common currency union could collapse. Your conclusion: It would be technically possible for a member state to leave the euro zone, but that politically it is about as likely as a meteorite hitting the Eurotower in Frankfurt. Are you sticking by that assessment? 

Eichengreen: Yes, but with one condition. That at their summit in March, the member states face up to some unpleasant truths. Plan A has failed. Now they have to switch to Plan B. They must stop attempting to combat the crisis in Greece and Ireland by forcing these countries to pile more debt onto their existing debts by saddling them with overpriced loans.

Eichengreen: Yes, but with one condition. That at their summit in March, the member states face up to some unpleasant truths. Plan A has failed. Now they have to switch to Plan B. They must stop attempting to combat the crisis in Greece and Ireland by forcing these countries to pile more debt onto their existing debts by saddling them with overpriced loans.

SPIEGEL: But at the same time, Europe is stifling any chance of growth in Greece and Ireland by forcing them to comply with harsh austerity measures. Is there any way this strategy can actually add up?

Eichengreen: The present bailout attempts have never made sense. Essentially, all Germany and France want to achieve with these measures is to protect their own banks from collapsing. Now people are beginning to realize that there is no way around rescheduling Greece's debt -- and that will also involve the banks. For this to happen, there is only one solution: Europe needs to strengthen its banks! Greece lived beyond its means, but in Ireland and Spain it is the banks that are the problem. The euro crisis is first and foremost a banking crisis.