Analisis político

En Gideon Rachman, un buen análisis sobre la pobreza intelectual y de recursos de los que proponen ahora un ministro de hacienda de la UE, o un bono europeo, para solucionar para siempre la crisis. Su tema no es la economía, sino las diferencias culturales que impiden una unión política mayor. Son cosas tan evidentes que lo sorprendente es que aún hoy, se pretenda seguir adelante por ese camino. Cuando los pasos dados hasta ahora han fracasado en crear un sentimiento de unidad -al revés, los pagadores del norte odian más a los vividores del sur, y viceversa- hay que reflexionar en cono salir de la trampa. Lo que no es fácil, desde luego. Pero seguir soñando con que la Unión definitiva está cerca, es crear ilusiones imposibles y problemas como el que está a punto de irsenos de las manos.

Those who argue that “political union” is the solution to the current crisis seem to believe that Europe’s problem is institutional. Unlike the US, the eurozone does not have the political institutions to back up a common currency. But if Europe was just equipped with a finance ministry or the facility to issue eurozone bonds or to tax citizens directly, everything could be fixed.
This is a profound misdiagnosis of the crisis. The real problem is political and cultural. There is not a strong enough common political identity in Europe to support the single currency. That is why German, Dutch and Finnish voters are revolting against the idea of bailing out Greece again – while Greeks riot against what they see as a new colonialism imposed from Brussels and Frankfurt.
To argue that even deeper political integration is the solution to this mess, is like recommending that a man with alcohol poisoning should treat himself with a more powerful brand of vodka.

It is important to understand that the origins of the current crisis lie precisely in the dream of political union in Europe. For the true believers, currency union was always just a means to that greater end. It was a way of “building Europe”. If bits of the construction were missing – such as a European finance ministry – they could be added later. Helmut Kohl, the chancellor of Germany in the early 1990s, was so convinced of the need to bind a united Germany into the European Union that he was prepared to press ahead with the euro, in the face of 80 per cent opposition from the German public. 

Such leadership is all very well, if it is vindicated by events. However, if elite decisions go wrong, they create a backlash – which is exactly what is happening in Europe now. German voters were told repeatedly that the euro would be a stable currency and that they would not have to bail out southern Europe. They now feel betrayed and angry. Greek, Irish, Spanish and Portuguese voters were told repeatedly that the euro was the route to wealth on a par with that of northern Europe. They now associate the single currency with lost jobs, falling wages and slashed pensions. They too feel betrayed and angry.

 The relations between the peoples of the EU are cracking under the strain of the euro crisis. In Athens, demonstrators wave EU flags with the swastika imposed upon it. In Germany, the euro crisis has made it permissible to denounce profligate and corrupt southern Europeans. A single currency that was meant to bring Europeans together is instead driving them apart.