Summary of my guesses (absolutely my personal views)
■A melt-up or end-phase of a bubble within the next 6 months to 2 years is over 50%.
■If there is a melt-up, then the odds of a subsequent bubble break or melt-down are very, very high, i.e., over 90%.
■If there is a market decline following a melt-up, it is quite likely to be a decline of some 50% (see Appendix). ■If such a decline takes place, I believe the market is very likely (over 2:1) to bounce back up way over the pre 1998 level of 15x, but likely a bit below the average trend of the last 20 years, as the trend slowly works its way back toward the old normal on my “Not with a Bang but a Whimper” fight path.4
"How can I know what I think until I read what I write?" – Henry James
There are a few lone voices willing to utter heresy. I am an avid follower of Ilusion Monetaria, a blog by ex-Bank of Spain economist (and monetarist) Miguel Navascues here.
Dr Navascues calls a spade a spade. He exhorts Spain to break free of EMU oppression immediately. (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard)
martes, 23 de enero de 2018
Tic tac. ¿Cuanto queda?
Publicado por "Casandra" www.MiguelNavascues.com