Escenarios

Ayer, subasta de letras del Tesoro a 2 años. 5,839%.  En la imagen, la trayectoria que ha seguido el yield hasta esa cota. Como dice http://ftalphaville.ft.com/, imaginen la desesperación de los bancos al ver cómo suben las dificultades para finanxciarse en el BCE con un colateral de garantía cuyo valor baja a esa velocidad...

Jonathan Wilmot:

from Credit Suisse’s chief global strategist (and occasional FT Alphaville contributor), prevé in escenario de abandono progresivo de loa inversores de los mercados de bonos, subida de lso rendimiesntoa hasta un 9% para España, y posible crisis bancaria con run de depósitos. Escalofriante. (A continuación, un extracto.)

We seem to have entered the last days of the euro as we currently know it.

That doesn’t make a break-up very likely, but it does mean some extraordinary things will almost certainly need to happen – probably by mid-January – to prevent the progressive closure of all the euro zone sovereign bond markets, potentially accompanied by escalating runs on even the strongest banks.

That may sound overdramatic, but it reflects the inexorable logic of investors realizing that – as things currently stand – they simply cannot be sure what exactly they are holding or buying in the euro zone sovereign bond markets.

In the short run, this cannot be fixed by the ECB or by new governments in Greece, Italy or Spain: it’s about markets needing credible signals on the shape of fiscal and political union long before final treaty changes can take place. We suspect this spells the death of “muddle-through” as market pressures effectively force France and Germany to strike a momentous deal on fiscal union much sooner than currently seems possible, or than either would like. Then and only then do we think the ECB will agree to provide the bridge finance needed to prevent systemic collapse. (No comparto esta opnión: al menos el BCE sí puede hacer algo a corto plazo)

One paradox is that pressure on Italian and Spanish bond yields may get quite a lot worse even as their new governments start to deliver reforms – 10-year yields spiking above 9% for a short period is not something one could rule out. For that matter, it’s quite possible that we will see French yields above 5%, and even Bund yields rise during this critical fiscal union debate.

In short, the fate of the euro is about to be decided. And the pressure for the necessary political breakthroughs will likely come from investors seeking to protect themselves from the utterly catastrophic consequences of a break-up – a scenario that their own fears should ultimately help to prevent.