Los nuevos bonos griegos, a fuerte descuento

En http://www.businessinsider.com/there-will-be-contagion-2012-3.los nuevos bonos griegos, por los que han sido sustituidos los viejos con una quita del 53%, cotizan ya a descuento del 75%. Nos que hayan salido el mercado, pero ya hay ofertas nocionales por ellos. Lo cual, según Mauldin, autor del aretículo es como si la deuda vieja valiera en realidad un 12% de su valor facial, lo que significa en realidad una quita de hecho del 90%. Si ud. cree esto una exageración, piense un momento cuánto daría por comprara esos nuevos bonos a 30 años con un rendimiento del 3%. Seguro que no hay tortas por hacerse con uno.

The "new" debt is already trading in the market, even though it has not actually been issued. (Don't bother traders with messy details, just do the deal.) This page from Bloomberg is just too delicious not to print, sent to me courtesy of Dan Greenhaus of BTIG. It shows the new Greek bonds trading at over a 71-79% discount, depending on the length of maturity. Note this is AFTER the 53% haircut already imposed. That reads to me like the market value of original Greek debt is now between 12 and 14% of the original face value. Didn't I write in this letter early last year that Greek debt would ultimately get a 90% haircut? Let me suggest to my critics that what was pessimistic back then may prove to have been optimistic at the end of the day.   Over 90% (some unconfirmed reports of as much as 95.7%) of Greek bondholders offered their bonds in the swap. The remaining bond holders will be forced by the Greek government to take the deal under a collective action clause, or CAC. But that 90%+ participation rate of bond holders willing to take their lumps may be suspect, according to Art Cashin, writing this morning: 

 

También se rumorea que una buena parte de los "voluntarios" par entrar en la quita y swaps de deuda se les ha convencido con ciertos incentivos, para que los atrapados en el CAC fueran los menos posibles:

"Some savvy (but very cynical) traders think the heavy participation may have been structured. They posit that in order to keep the deal from falling apart, some banks, on government instructions, may have paid a premium to the 'reluctant' participants. That would get them out of the way and allow for more tenders by the buyers. No proof – just conjecture."

Sin embargo, se ha declarado "credit event", y los CDS sobre Grecia (seguros de crédito)  podrán ser ejecutados, lo que supondrá un porrón de miles de millones moviéndose por ahí.
Es una situación curiosa ésta en que se mira como un triunfo dejar a un país esquilmado y sin recursos para cumplir siquiera esta nueva deuda más pequeña y a más largo plazo.  Grecia se ha contraído hasta ahora un 20%, y el paro ha subido al 20%, lo que es una verdadera depresión.
Se supone que cualquier otra alternativa sería peor. No para los griegos.

Greece itself is in free fall. The "benefits" of austerity have not become apparent, as the Greek economy saw growth rates of -0.2% in 2008, -3.3% in 2009, -3.4% in 2010, -6.9% in 2011, and...? The 4^th quarter of last year saw a GDP fall of 7.5%. Do you see a trend here? The Greek economy is down by almost one-fifth in less than five years. Unemployment has risen to 20%, and 50% among young people, many of whom are leaving the country. Resentment has grown among ordinary Greeks over the austerity medicine ordered by international creditors, which has compounded the pain. Greek papers are full of stories blaming Germany for their problems.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/there-will-be-contagion-2012-3#ixzz1onfDMM1T