El discurso de Mario Draghi, en el que ha asegurado que el Banco Central Europeo aprecia presiones al alza en los precios de la zona euro, ha empujado al euro hasta marcar máximos de marzo, al borde de los 1,40 dólares. La moneda común, que en las horas previas al anuncio de Draghi se movía en el entorno de los 1,393 dólares acumula de esta forma nueve de las últimas trece sesiones al alza.
Estoy a punto de cuescarme en todos los muertos de Draghi. Pero si voy a la alocución oficial de Draghi, me encuentro algo muy diferente: que la inflación va a seguir amenazando a la baja y que el BCE está dispuesto a tomar medidas anti inflacionistas en junio, que es lo que de verdad ha hecho subir al euro.
Turning to the monetary analysis, data for March 2014 continue to point to subdued underlying growth in broad money (M3). Annual growth in M3 moderated to 1.1% in March, from 1.3% in February. The growth of the narrow monetary aggregate M1 remained robust but decreased to 5.6 % in March, after 6.2% in February. The increase in the MFI net external asset position, reflecting in part the continued interest of international investors in euro area assets, remains the main factor supporting annual M3 growth.
The annual rate of change of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) was ‑3.1% in March, unchanged from February. Weak loan dynamics for non-financial corporations continue to reflect their lagged relationship with the business cycle, credit risk and the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets. The annual growth rate of loans to households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) stood at 0.4% in March 2014, broadly unchanged since the beginning of 2013.
The April 2014 bank lending survey confirmed the stabilisation of credit conditions for loans to enterprises and households. Credit standards over the previous three months remained broadly unchanged for loans to enterprises but were eased in net terms for households. Broadly in line with these results, in the survey on the access to finance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for the period October 2013-March 2014, SMEs reported that bank loan availability had become less negative and had actually improved in some euro area countries. According to both surveys, the general economic outlook contributed less negatively or even positively to these developments. At the same time, banks still reported tight levels of credit standards when seen in a historical perspective.
To sum up, the economic analysis confirms our expectation of a prolonged period of low inflation followed by only a gradual upward movement in HICP inflation rates towards levels closer to 2%. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms the picture of subdued underlying price pressures in the euro area over the medium term.
Como no me fío de mí mismo, voy al Financial Times, donde leemos lo siguiente:
Mario Draghi has signalled that the European Central Bank will loosen monetary policy next month to combat persistently low inflation in the eurozone, as it left its benchmark interest rate at a record low for the sixth month in a row.
The ECB president said at his monthly press conference on Thursday that the “governing council is comfortable with acting next time”, adding there was consensus within the ECB council over “dissatisfaction about the projected path of inflation”.
O sea, por favor, un poco de cuidado.
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