Cada vez más "behind the curve". Palabras evasivas de Draghi

WIM WAS NOTHING LIKE “THE DUISENBERG”, TRICHET WAS “TRICKY JUST LIKE DICK” AND DRAGHI IS “DRAGGING THE ECONOMY DOWN” (Marcus Nunes)

Hoy ha habido cónclave en el BCE. Nada nuevo, tristemente. Las palabras de Draghi -que se supone representan la decisión unánime del Consejo de gobierno del BCE- son muy elusivas. Eluden hablar del problema económico de verdad, y por el contrario habla de riesgos equidistantes entre inflación y deflación (palabra que no admite su vocabulario):

"The Governing Council sees both upside and downside risks to the outlook for price developments as limited and broadly balanced over the medium term."

Curioso diagnóstico, que debe ser debido a tener que conseguir el consenso interno y la aprobación de los tíos de la matraca, los del Bundesbank. Porque, desde luego, no se deduce eso de otras líneas de su alocución:

Overall, recent information, including survey data available for July, remains consistent with our expectation of a continued moderate and uneven recovery of the euro area economy. Looking ahead, domestic demand should be supported by a number of factors, including the accommodative monetary policy stance and the ongoing improvements in financial conditions.

De lo que se infiere que considera que la política monetaria es muy expansiva. Sin embargo, un poco más adelante dice que:

Turning to the monetary analysis, data for June 2014 continue to point to subdued underlying growth in broad money (M3), with annual growth standing at 1.5% in June, compared with 1.0% in May. The growth of the narrow monetary aggregate M1 stood at 5.3% in June, up from 5.0% in May. The increase in the MFI net external asset position, reflecting in part the continued interest of international investors in euro area assets, remained an important factor supporting annual M3 growth.
The annual rate of change of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) remained negative at -2.3% in June, compared with -2.5% in May and ‑3.2% in February. Lending to non-financial corporations continues to be weak, reflecting the lagged relationship with the business cycle, credit risk, credit supply factors and the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheet

(Debe ser por eso que no manifiesta ninguna prisa para poner en marcha las medidas  tomadas en junio:

As stated previously, and as a follow-up to our decision in early June, we have intensified preparatory work related to outright purchases in the asset-backed securities market to enhance the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.)

Una oferta monetaria con ese raquítico crecimiento y un crédito que sigue cayendo, no se puede considerar como una expansión monetaria. Más, si la inflación -único objetivo del BCE- está muy por debajo del "2% sin llegar a él" (sí, así de ridícula es la prevención del BCE contra la fantasmagórica inflación).

According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 0.4% in July 2014, after 0.5% in June. This reflects primarily lower energy price inflation, while the other main components of the HICP remained broadly unchanged . On the basis of current information, annual HICP inflation is expected to remain at low levels over the coming months, before increasing gradually during 2015 and 2016. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the euro area over the medium to long term continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2%.

Eso sí, diciendo poco a las claras que el BCE no puede hacer más, se congratula de las políticas de contención fiscal (¿?), que deben reforzarse para alcanzar el pleno crecimiento

In addition, the progress made in fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, as well as gains in real disposable income, should make a positive contribution to economic growth. dampen the pace of the economic recovery... As regards fiscal policies, comprehensive fiscal consolidation in recent years has contributed to reducing budgetary imbalances. Important structural reforms have increased competitiveness and the adjustment capacity of countries’ labour and product markets. These efforts now need to gain momentum to enhance the euro area’s growth potential. Structural reforms should focus on fostering private investment and job creation. To restore sound public finances, euro area countries should proceed in line with the Stability and Growth Pact and should not unravel the progress made with fiscal consolidation.

Parece ser que las fuerzas espontáneas de la economía (en las que creen a pies juntillas todos estos gilipollas del austerismo/clasicismo): la inflación tiende a subir hacia el 2% graciosamente, porque sí.

To sum up, the economic analysis indicates that the current low level of inflation should be followed by a gradual upward movement in HICP inflation rates towards levels closer to 2%. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms this picture.

Luego, sin ninguna consistencia, muestra su deseo de que la consolidación fiscal se realice en un marco de crecimiento, cuando por antes ha dicho que no debe de interrumpirse. A continuación, para demostrar su sapiencia, recomienda que, en este entorno de crédito negativo, los bancos deben aprovecharlo para consolidarse y aumentar su capital. Como sí el BCE no tuviera ninguna culpa del estado del crédito, que se debe, según él, a los coletazos de la recesión.

Fiscal consolidation should be designed in a growth-friendly way. A full and consistent implementation of the euro area’s existing fiscal and macroeconomic surveillance framework is key to bringing down high public debt ratios, to raising potential growth and to increasing the euro area’s resilience to shocks.

Lending to non-financial corporations continues to be weak, reflecting the lagged relationship with the business cycle, credit risk, credit supply factors and the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets

En suma, un "atonishing" ejercicio de contradicciones, mentiras, y escapismo, que no dice nada bueno de lo que se cuece en la cocina de esa tenebrosa casa, vecina del Bundesbank en Francfurt... Y que se (nos) está metiendo en un callejón sin salida, pese a la recuperación rajoyana (que sólo ve Rajoy).
Tristemente, los españoles ignoran estas cosas en su mayoría. Pero es que también los economistas españoles en su mayoría, ignoran estos temas. Para ellos el euro esta ahí y punto carajo. El dinero no importa.