"How can I know what I think until I read what I write?" – Henry James


There are a few lone voices willing to utter heresy. I am an avid follower of Ilusion Monetaria, a blog by ex-Bank of Spain economist (and monetarist) Miguel Navascues here.
Dr Navascues calls a spade a spade. He exhorts Spain to break free of EMU oppression immediately. (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard)

lunes, 6 de junio de 2011

BCE se enroca

En el WSJ, el BCE se niega en redondo ha que a Grecia se le permita una modificación, siquiera mínima, de su deuda.


The European Central Bank has been solidly against rescheduling Greece's debt owed to private-sector creditors, and ECB board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi served notice to European governments Monday that the central bank isn't backing down.
Simon Dawson/Bloomberg News
European Central Bank board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
"The practical implementation of this idea is fraught with complications and, if done unwisely, may actually be very damaging, and turn out to be more costly for taxpayers," he said, according to prepared text before a conference in Berlin.
Proposals now under discussion among euro-zone governments would ask Greece's creditors to exchange their soon-to-mature debt for debt with a longer maturity. That process could begin as early as July after finance ministers approve the new Greek aid package at their meeting on June 20.
The euro zone's central bank has been opposed to German-led calls to get private-sector creditors to share the burden in another aid package for Greece. Some ECB governors have even threatened to disallow the use of rescheduled Greek government bonds as collateral in the central bank's liquidity operations.
Economists worry that this could trigger an immediate liquidity crisis in the Greek banking system, with a risk of new jitters spreading through other euro-zone banking systems.
Mr. Bini Smaghi warned that euro-zone governments mustn't demand a restructuring as a precondition for providing further aid.
"The problem emerges when debt restructuring is carried out not as the last resort but as a preventive tool, even becoming a precondition for receiving [or providing] financial assistance," he said.
A sovereign-debt restructuring should only be a last resort, he said. "More often than not, restructurings have been disorderly, harmful and fraught with difficulties," he said.
Mr. Bini Smaghi warned that Greek financial markets would be severely affected by a default or restructuring. "Large losses would have to be accounted for, as no forbearance would be possible, and recapitalization of the domestic banking system would require additional public money."
Greece's best course is to stick with its stringent fiscal austerity programs to cut its budget deficit, he said, warning that the alternative "is default or restructuring of the public debt."
¿Qué quiere decir esto? que el euro está más en el aire. 

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