Llamada a la decisión responsable

Hoy, en el FT, Larry Summers sobre el euro:

"The world must insist that Europe act"

Much the same process has played out in Europe over the past two years. At every stage of this process, from the first signs of trouble in Greece, to the spread of problems to Portugal and Ireland, to the recognition of Greece’s inability to pay its debts in full, to the rise of debt spreads in Spain and Italy, the authorities have played out the stalemate machine. They have done just enough beyond euro-orthodoxy to avoid an imminent collapse, but never enough to establish a sound foundation for a resumption of confidence. Perhaps inevitably, the gaps between emergency summits grow shorter and shorter.

The process has taken its toll on policymakers’ credibility. As I warned European friends quite some time ago, authorities who assert in the face of all evidence that Greece can service on time 100 per cent of its debts will have little credibility when they later assert that the fundamentals are sound in Spain and Italy, even if their view on the latter point is a reasonable one. After the spectacle of European bank stress tests that treat assets where credit default swaps exceed 500 basis points as riskless, how can markets do otherwise than to ignore regulators’ assertions about the solvency of certain key financial institutions?

To her very great credit Christine Lagarde, the new managing director of the International Monetary Fund, has already pointed up the three principles that any approach to Europe’s financial problems must respect. First, Europe must work backwards from a vision of where its monetary system will be several years hence. The reality is that Europe’s politicians have for the past decade dismissed the widespread view among experienced monetary economists that multiple sovereigns with independent budgeting and banking regulation will over time place unsustainable strains on a common currency. The European Monetary Union has been a classic case of the late economist Rudiger Dornbusch’s dictum: “In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.” So it has been with the build-up of pressures on the eurozone system.

Third, like her predecessor, Ms. Lagarde has broken with IMF orthodoxy in noting that expansionary policies are necessary in the face of substantial economic slack. The oxymoronic doctrine of expansionary fiscal contraction is being discredited with every passing month. Europe needs a growth strategy. Yet almost everywhere, and certainly in the most indebted countries, binding commitments to eventual deficit reductions are a necessity. And in some places credibility has been lost to the point where immediate actions are needed. But Europe can handle its debts and contribute to a stronger global economy only if it grows. This will require both aggregate fiscal and monetary expansion.

While any single household or nation can improve its balance sheet by saving more and spending less, the effort by all to cut back means reduced incomes and ultimately less saving for all. Germany, in particular, needs to recognise that if other European nations are going to borrow less then it will be able to lend less, and that as a matter of arithmetic this will mean a smaller trade surplus. 

Now, when these problems have the potential to disrupt growth around the world, all nations have an obligation to insist that Europe find a viable way forward. 

Una llamada a la decisión responsable, que no sabemos si tendrá el más mínimo eco en los que pueden tomarla. Desgraciadamente, como las lamentables palabras de Juncker, presidente de no-sé-qué de Europa (hay tantos cargos cooptados en esa burocracia turnante -y tunante- que ni me molesto en seguirlos), demuestran,  los europeos recelan de de los americanos llamándoles "keynesianos" (por lo menos no los ha llamado fascistas). El caso es que, keynesianos o no, tienen razón en estar asustados: Europa puede causar una crisis peor que la de hace tres años. Si la primera nos tiene acogotados con 5 millones de parados y la perspectiva de una década, como poco, de estancamiento y decadencia, otra crisis sería insuperable. Los ciudadanos sencillamente dejarían de confiar en la democracia, como pasó en 1930 -y como está ya pasando-, y los partidos no democráticos se harían con el poder, al menos en Europa. desgraciadamente, un escenario de caos y de incivilización está cada vez más próximo, aunque aquí, en España, lo ciframos todo en PP o PSOE. Hay en juego nada menos que el hundimiento de todo. El problema es económico pero las consecuencias trascienden ese terreno de manera aplastante.
La llamada de L. Summers no puede ser más pertinente. Lástima que la abismal y creciente divergencia entre USA y Europa, haya crecido en estos tiempos en que todos necesitamos de todos. Lástima que no se oigan voces fuertes en Europa alternativas a las oficiales, que se han encerrado en su su cascarón y solo se aferran a su ortodoxia desgastada.
La última esperanza, o de las últimas, como dice Summers, es la  próxima reunión del Fondo Monetario Internacional, en la que todos se verán las caras. Pero no confío en que Merkel & Co. cambien de piñón.