La rectitud fiscal no es la causa (Krugman)

Tenemos tan incrustado el "modelo" alemán, que todos nos adherimos a la cirugía del dolor sin más contemplaciones. Aquí, mediante un sencillo argumento, Krugman en austrian-economics-the-real-kind demuestra que la mula que nos venden está coja. Vean a Austria, un país mejor aún que Alemania en paro y en déficit fiscal. Pues empieza a estar cuestionado, y su prima de riesgo ha dado señales -como la francesa- de desconfianza. Como dice Krugman, será lo que sea, pero

Pero una cosa está clara: la rectitud fiscal - que los austriacos han mostrado incluso más que los alemanes - no es una protección.

Austrian Economics, The Real Kind

It’s not just Spain and Italy — as many people have been noticing, spreads of French 10-years against German bunds have also widened significantly. And France is responding with fiscal austerity. But is this really about fiscal issues, or at any rate the kind that austerity could possibly address? Consider, if you will, Austria.

Austria is, by most comparisons, a very successful economy, with low unemployment and a current account surplus. Its fiscal outlook is slightly better than Germany’s, according to IMF projections:

Yet Austria has had almost exactly the same interest rate experience as France. In June, both Austria and France had 10-year rates of 3.43%, 44 basis points above Germany’s 2.89. As of today, German rates were down to 1.91, but French rates were up to 3.47 — and Austrian rates up to 3.44. Both countries, in other words, have seen their spreads more than triple.

What exactly is going on here? Is the market worried about bank exposure? Is it pricing in a possible euro breakup? Lots to chew on here. But one thing is clear: fiscal rectitude — which the Austrians have displayed even more than the Germans — is no protection.