"How can I know what I think until I read what I write?" – Henry James


There are a few lone voices willing to utter heresy. I am an avid follower of Ilusion Monetaria, a blog by ex-Bank of Spain economist (and monetarist) Miguel Navascues here.
Dr Navascues calls a spade a spade. He exhorts Spain to break free of EMU oppression immediately. (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard)

domingo, 18 de diciembre de 2011

Jürgen Stark... y Draghi

Jügern Stark dimitió en septiembre del BCe por "razones personales". Ahora aclara -como si alquien se lo hubiera creído- que fue por desacuerdos con la compra de bonos nacionales del BCE.
Aquí se ofrecen detalles del pensamiento (o sentimiento) de Starka que dan que pensar. Especialmente esto:
Since May last year, the ECB has acquired more than €200bn in mainly southern European government bonds, but it still has not seen an end to the eurozone crisis.
Mr Stark was responsible for the ECB’s economics division and presented recommendations for interest rate changes to monthly meetings of its 23-member governing council – a job held by a German since the ECB’s launch. In German media Mr Stark was described as the ECB’s “chief economist”, although formally no such position exists.
Mr Stark said the ECB had long warned about emerging problems across the eurozone – for instance the dramatic loss of competitiveness in some eurozone countries caused by higher wage costs and of dangerous house price booms. Such imbalances could not be corrected by the central bank, he said. “Do not ask too much of the central bank.
The European Union ban on central banks funding governments was a “fundamental” part of the eurozone’s construction, Mr Stark emphasised. “Without this rule there would be no economic and monetary union.”
He added: “About 90 per cent of the self-proclaimed or actual experts around the world tell the ECB that the only way is to use the ‘big bazooka,’ with the US Fed cited as the shining example. But behind that, there is a misunderstanding of the institutional framework that we have here.”
En el fondo concuerdo con él, pues está diciendo que el BCE no puede actuar como un banco central para todos. Por eso actúa para Alemania, sólo para Alemania. Es decir, si no actuamos todos como alemanes, no funcionará la UME.
Ok. Es que es una gran verdad; la UM es un desastre porque nunca fue una Zona Monetaria Óptima (ni subóptima). Entonces que hacemos: ¿nos convertimos en alemanes, o se rompe la bajara? ¿Quién la rompe?
Stark ha sido y es euroescéptico, es claro. Eso le honra, en mi opinión. Pero no a su jefa, que está empeñada en encajonarnos a todos mentalmente en un sistema cognitivo que no es nuestro. Como Rajoy y sus cuates, que cada vez se revelan más como víctimas de su propia ceguera.

por otro lado, Draghi hace sus primeras declaraciones como Presidente del BCE. Desoladoras. Por una parte advierte del infierno en el que caerían los que se salieran del euro, pero por otro dice que la única salida es reforzar la austeridad. FT:
Mr Draghi said the programme would remain justified as long as the financial market “channels” by which its interest rate decisions are transmitted to the real economy remained “seriously impaired”. However, he stressed the EU ban on central bank funding of governments. Asked if that set limits on the ECB’s bond buying, Mr Draghi instead emphasised the need to ensure governments were “trusted on fiscal discipline and structural reforms”.
He hinted he opposed the ECB setting target limits for eurozone government bond yields or for the spread between the interest rate on German and other eurozone government debt. “Monetary policy cannot do everything,” he warned.
Mr Draghi also appeared to rule out US or UK style “quantitative easing” – embarking on large government bond purchases to boost economic growth – even if the eurozone fell into a deep recession. “The important thing is to restore the trust of the people – citizens as well as investors – in our continent. We won’t achieve that by destroying the credibility of the ECB.”
Sin palabras, frozen. 

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