Pateando la lata por el camino

kick the can down the road, dice Roubini (aquí), que ya no queda tiempo para ir aplazando las decisiones. en 2012 mismo, nos podemos tropezar con la tormenta perfecta: Racaída en recesión USA, desordenada caída del euro, y  hard landing en China. Me parece obvio.

So in 2012, the combination of market pressures and conflicting political constraints will make it more difficult to kick the can down the road. A few eurozone members may need to coercively restructure their debts and even consider exiting the currency union. A slowdown in China’s growth may come close to being a hard landing. Markets in the US may become more concerned about the political gridlock that stops policymakers taking the necessary actions and maintains the unsustainable US twin deficits. 

If the world’s biggest economies continue to play the same game and try to kick the cans further down the road for another year, the cans will become bigger and heavier and eventually hit a brick wall. By 2013 at the latest, but possibly already in 2012, a perfect storm of a double-dip recession in the US, a disorderly scenario in the eurozone and a hard landing in China could materialise.