David March ofrece una explicación clara de por qué RU ha salido antes, y con más fuerza, de la Gran Recesión: porque el Banco de Inglaterra ha hecho una política netamente expansiva, mientras el Gobierno ha hecho una política de consolidación fiscal más moderada que la que se pregonaba oficialmente. Todo lo contrario que el BCE y el "gobierno Europeo" (es decir, la del coxis partío), que ha restringido abruptamente los gastos fiscales (especialmente las inversiones públicas), en una zona monetaria en realidad fragmentada, incapaz de recibir impulsos monetarios desde un sólo banco emisor.
Undoubtedly, the main factor behind the recovery is that the UK authorities have achieved an appropriate balance between fiscal and monetary policies. The much-criticised understanding in 2010-11 between Osborne and previous Bank of England chief Mervyn King, under which the Bank would maintain easy money in return for a relatively restrictive fiscal policy, has paid off.
The euro area, on the other hand, has faced the unrelenting challenge of highly restrictive policies in both the fiscal and monetary field, explaining why, in contrast to the UK, the OECD has revised downwards rather than upwards its projections for 2013 and 2014 euro area performance.
In fact, the UK has pursued the middle ground in terms of fiscal adjustment. Far from imposing draconian austerity, the coalition government has brought in fiscal consolidation that has been slightly less severe than in the OECD as a whole.
According to OECD figures, the net fiscal tightening between 2010 and 2013, measured by changes in the structural budget position over that period as a proportion of GDP, has been 2.9 percentage points for the UK against 3.3 points for the entire OECD and 5.1 points for the US, which has suffered large automatic budgetary cuts and has been rewarded with a much better than average economic recovery.
Budgetary consolidation in the euro area has been much more severe than in the UK, with structural tightening of a net 22 points in Ireland over 2010-13, against 13.7 in Greece, 6.5 in Portugal, 4.9 in Spain, 3.6 in France, 3.3 in Germany, and 2.8 in Italy. As a result, Britain’s general government deficit for 2013, at 6.9% of GDP (compared with 6.5% for the US), was higher than the distressed countries in the euro area – indicating that the UK is making optimal use of budgetary flexibility.
On top of this, the one-size-fits-all monetary policy of the European Central Bank combined with continuing financial fragmentation in the euro bloc has led to highly restrictive monetary policies in mainland Europe. Credit to non-financial companies has fallen in most euro member states over the past year. Broad money supply was up only 1.5% over the previous year according to latest ECB figures for November published last week.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario