... Y nos recuerda la relación que tiene el vuelco electoral con el euro. Es más, se pregunta, ahora que Grecia esta con un pie fuera, y Podemos le come los zancajos a la democracia y a la nación, ¿qué pasaría si Grecia mejorara con su salida del euro? Simplemente porque la devaluación, después de un ajuste duro, llenaraía las islas del mar Egeo de turistas británicos.
La carcoma sigue avanzando, pero los euristas siguen negándolo. Es decir, me refiero a todos: todos los truculentos economistas españoles, salvo excepciones (que vayan tomando nota lao garicanos). ¡Conspiración de silencio que dura ya veinticinco años!!!!
We just had another electoral earthquake in the euro area: Podemos-backed candidates have won local elections in Madrid and Barcelona. And I hope that the IFKAT — the institutions formerly known as the troika — are paying attention....
... What I would urge everyone to do is ask what happens if Greece is in fact pushed out of the euro. (Yes, Grexit — ugly word, but we’re stuck with it.)
It would surely be ugly in Greece, at least at first. Right now the core euro countries believe that the rest of the euro area can handle it, which might be true. Bear in mind, however, that the supposed firewall of ECB support has never actually been tested. If markets lose faith and the time for ECB purchases of Spanish or Italian bonds arises, will it really happen?
But the bigger question is what happens a year or two after Grexit, where the real risk to the euro is not that Greece will fail but that it will succeed. Suppose that a greatly devalued new drachma brings a flood of British beer-drinkers to the Ionian Sea, and Greece starts to recover. This would greatly encourage challengers to austerity and internal devaluation elsewhere.
Think about it. Just the other day the Very Serious Europeans were hailing Spain as a great success story, a vindication of the whole program. Evidently the Spanish people don’t agree. And if the anti-establishment forces have a recovering Greece to point to, the discrediting of the establishment will accelerate.
One conclusion, I guess, is that Germany should try to sabotage Greece post-exit. But I hope that will be considered unacceptable.
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