Grecia, Probable cierre de crisis. Münchau, pesimista

Daily Telegraph: Tsipras presenta un plan de rescate más duro que el rechazado en el referéndum. En él no se menciona nada de quita o reestructuración de deuda.

(Por cierto, un barrido a la prensa española, pufff, no tienen nadie de guardia. NO DAN LA NOTICIA)

El plan será posiblemente aprobado por los ministros de finanzas de la UE. Esta tarde/noche, si es aprobado por el parlamento griego, se suspendería la Cumbre prevista para el domingo y, el lines, sería presentado a su aprobación en los parlamentos de países acreedores. Finlandia ha sido que posiblemente Votaría NO.

What happens next?

If it all goes to plan, then the Greek parliament will vote through the measures tonight. Mr Tsipras will likely be relying on his opposition parties to give their assent.

Then, finance ministers will unanimously have to give their assent to the Greek proposals on Saturday. This may then lead to the cancellation of an emergency leaders summit set for Sunday.

On Monday, all eyes would turn to the national parliaments of the eurozone. Germany, Portugal, Slovakia, Estonia, and Finland will all have to pass the loan request through their legislatures with a majority vote.

If all these hurdles are cross, Greece may then secure the release of around €3.3bn in bond profits it is owed by the ECB. This cash would help Greece pay off a maturing bond to the ECB on July 20.

Más detalles en Daily Telegraph

Wolfgang Münchau, pesimista sobre que el plan sea aprobado por los acreedores, aparte de que, económicamente, no es viable sin una quita ni reestructuración, el problema principal es que los dos partidos gobernantes en Alemania preferirían un Grexit. Ahora bien, Merkel no se va a arriesgar a aer la único que diga NO: su pase en la historia pasaría al nivel de un hitler... Pero hay otros países, Finlandia a la cabeza, que han dicho que no ponen un euro más.

Además, las cosas se han deteriorado tanto, que sería necesario un rescate bancario no contemplado en el plan, y que seguramente muhcoa no están dispuestos a pagar. La banca griega estå quebrada, tras las dos últimas semanas de vaciado de sus arcas. Corralito y control de capitales. Sin ayuda, un rescate sobre las espaldas de sus depositantes sería mortal.

By tomorrow, the technical people and the finance ministers will need to discuss whether the Greek numbers add up. The answer is almost certainly no, not least because of the rapid deterioration of the country’s economy. The imposition of capital controls and bank withdrawal limits brought most economic activity to a standstill. Any macroeconomic adjustment programme will have to start with a realisation that the situation is worse today than two weeks ago. The Greek list takes account of this in terms of slower adjustment periods. This is economically sensible. But Ms Merkel has already said she wanted this problem taken care of through additional austerity. For a programme to be agreed, one side will have to back down here.

On top of this, there is now the acute problem of an insolvent banking system — one that is totally reliant on a special lifeline from the European Central Bank called emergency liquidity assistance. The ECB will find it hard to increase ELA. So apart from agreeing on a macroeconomic stabilisation programme, European leaders will this weekend need to answer the more immediate question of what to do with the Greek banks.

otra mina en el camino: ¿se puede confiar de verdad en la persona que hace poco días sublevó, referendum mediante, contra los que ahora les pide dinero?

And then there is the matter of trust. Do all the creditors trust Mr Tsipras to deliver? The referendum destroyed the little remaining trust in him. The Greek prime minister’s appearance in the European Parliament on Wednesday showed that the only politicians who were genuinely sympathetic to him were on the far left and the far right.