¿Quė votaría si fuera griego?
Martin Wolf se hace la da pregunta, y la contesta bajo condiciones: sabiendo lo que sabe, votaría sí. Mejor malo conocido que bueno por conocer. No cree que este gobierno gestionara bien aun propia moneda, aunque podría ser tentado por un tipo de cambio libre.
Martin Wolf se hace la da pregunta, y la contesta bajo condiciones: sabiendo lo que sabe, votaría sí. Mejor malo conocido que bueno por conocer. No cree que este gobierno gestionara bien aun propia moneda, aunque podría ser tentado por un tipo de cambio libre.
"So I, as a Greek voter, face a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. The devil is familiar: the never-ending demands of the eurozone for further austerity against which my people voted in the last general election. The deep blue sea is sovereign default and monetary sovereignty. If I am Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, I think there is a third way — endless bailouts and few conditions. But I am sure he is deluded. So which would I choose? Being cautious I would be tempted to stick with the devil I know. But I might well do better to risk the sea."
2 comentarios:
A. Evans-Pritchard expone lo que todos estamos pensando:
"one might suspect - and I have not made up my mind - that Tsipras and Syriza’s inner circle concluded in April that they could not do business with an EMU regime that acts solely as the enforcement arm of the creditors.
They may have concluded that demands for further fiscal contraction were economic lunacy - a view shared by the Nobel fraternity and the US Treasury - and that no serious debt relief was on the table, and therefore they would do better to default and restore a Greek sovereign currency.
If so, they cannot admit it. They must make it appear that the decision was forced upon them, just as France’s Leon Blum had to tell white lies to free his country from the Gold Standard in 1936.
Syriza officials are fully aware that the likely consequence of a “No” vote would be a parallel currency - or IOUs - along with the nationalisation of the banks along the lines of the “Icelandic Model”. Syriza’s Left Platform has already drawn up plans along these lines. Variants almost certainly exist in the Greek finance ministry.
Such action implies a return to the drachma in short order. The Greeks would continue to insist that the country remains a member of the euro, with full legal rights - blaming the creditors and EU bodies for acting illegally. Only by doing so could they ensure that the full losses from Grexit fall on the ECB and the EMU bail-out funds, while the assets of Greek citizens remain legally protected in foreign accounts, free to return later to rebuild a new banking system.
If you were of a suspicious mind, you might wonder whether Mr Tsipras has not in fact lured European leaders and officials into a legal trap, and that they have fallen for the bait.
His Byzantine negotiating tactics may make perfect sense after all. Just a thought.
Francamente, delira, ha perdido la chaveta, solo ve conspiraciones u planes estratégicos con una anticipación que es difícil de creer. Se me hunde.
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