Expectativas, probabilidad y confianza

En María Alejandra Madi, Un párrafo de Keynes (General Theory, cap 12) que aclara cómo ve él la relación entre las expectativas de los inversores y la valoración que hacen de ellas. Es uno de sus puntos claves. Si ven algo objetivo en ello, díganmelo. 

 The state of long-term expectation, upon which our decisions are based, does not solely depend, therefore, on the most probable forecast we can make. It also depends on the confidence with which we make this forecast on how highly we rate the likelihood of our best forecast turning out quite wrong. If we expect large changes but are very uncertain as to what precise form these changes will take, then our confidence will be weak. The state of confidence, as they term it, is a matter to which practical men always pay the closest and most anxious attention. But economists have not analysed it carefully and have been content, as a rule, to discuss it in general terms. In particular it has not been made clear that its relevance to economic problems comes in through its important influence on the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital. There are not two separate factors affecting the rate of investment, namely, the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital and the state of confidence. The state of confidence is relevant because it is one of the major factors determining the former, which is the same thing as the investment demand ” (Keynes, General Theory, 12, II).

Las expectativas a largo plazo no dependen sólo de la probabilidad que le podemos asignar. También depende de la confianza con la que hacemos esta estimaciones, en cuánto ciframos que nuestras mejores predicciones puedan fracasar. Si esperamos cambios importantes que sin embargo no podemos precisar, nuestra confianza será débil. El estado de la confianza es algo a lo que los hombres prácticos (que deben tomar decisiones) prestan la más cerrada y ansiosa atención. [Un estado general de optimismo es contagioso, como lo es lo opuesto.]

Pero los economistas no han analizado esto detalladamente, y se ha contentado con verlo en términos generales [y siguen haciéndolo]. En particular, no se ha aclarado la relevancia en la curva de la eficiencia marginal del capital [rentabilidad de la inversión]. 

No hay dos factores separados determinantes de la inversión, la eficiencia marginal del capital y la confianza. Porque el estado la confianza es decisivo en la determinación de la curva de la eficiencia, que es la demanda de inversión. 

Según MA Madi, eso ha influido en la financiación excesiva de la empresa, ha exacerbado la preferencia del largo por el corto plazo, dando prioridad a la especulación financiera y a lsp,instrumentos derivados que desvían el riesgo hacia los especuladores. 

As Keynes warned, the influence of capital markets reinforces the conflicts between business strategies that favour short-run profits, on one side, and those strategies that favour long-run  investment decisions, on the other.  This idea is extremely important today, since the global reorganization of markets has been overwhelmed by the financial logic of investment. Within this framework, the corporations’ strategies have turned out to focus on short-term profits and the distribution of dividends to shareholders, that is to say, to investors.

Over the last two decades, the leveraged buyout business model of private equity firms, as the main agent for mergers, has fed a broader process of increased financialization of corporate behaviour. It is relevant to apprehend this recent business trend since private equity firms have been responsible for the employment standards of tens of millions of workers worldwide. While private equity firms have become important in many economic sectors, the experience of workers and trade unions arises deep concerns because of job losses, reduction in payment conditions and entitlements (including retirement incomes), besides the displacement of business and persons.

Recalling Minskly, in contemporary capitalism,  corporate behaviour and business instability need to be analysed in a framework where the role of finance is outstanding. Corporate behaviour has been increasingly subordinated to financial commitments and, therefore, finance determines the pace of investment and employment.