"How can I know what I think until I read what I write?" – Henry James


There are a few lone voices willing to utter heresy. I am an avid follower of Ilusion Monetaria, a blog by ex-Bank of Spain economist (and monetarist) Miguel Navascues here.
Dr Navascues calls a spade a spade. He exhorts Spain to break free of EMU oppression immediately. (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard)

viernes, 9 de diciembre de 2011

Sin pies ni cabeza

Ya han vuelto a ponerse al borde de la ilegalidad; han sacado algo, un "paquete" que no es aceptado por RU, Suecia, Hungría y Chequia, por lo que no se sabe por qué trampilla se va a legalizar.
FT:
Leaders of the European Union’s 27 countries failed to agree to change the EU’s treaties in order to impose tighter fiscal rules on the eurozone and instead chose to create a new intergovernmental treaty which will probably have less teeth and be negotiated only among 23 members.
Otro Tratado. ya tenemos tres Europas:  la UE de 27; la del euro, 17; la del tratado nuevo, 23. Ahora, a pensar marrullerías para imponerse unos a otros:
Still, without agreement among all 27 countries, it remained unclear how the new fiscal rules the summit leaders promised to follow would be enforced. EU institutions – most importantly, the European Commission, which oversees and passes judgement on such rules in Brussels – legally cannot have a formal role in any agreement outside the EU treaties.
José Manuel Barroso, the Commission president, said he believed there were ways to work around such legal prohibitions, but senior EU officials acknowledged it would be difficult to give Brussels new powers over eurozone national budgets outside the EU treaties, and diplomats expressed concern financial markets would not see the new pact as credible.
 In the end, diplomats said, it was the UK that became the biggest stumbling block to a deal between all 27 countries, with Britain’s prime minister David Cameron holding out for hours in the hope of getting concessions for the UK’s financial services industry.
La pelea con Inglaterra ha sido seria. Sarkozy:
“Very simply, in order to accept the reform of the treaty at 27, David Cameron asked for what we thought was unacceptable: a protocol to exonerate the UK from financial services regulation,” said Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president. “We could not accept this as at least part of the problems [Europe is facing] came from this sector.”
Several diplomats said Mr Cameron emerged from Friday morning’s negotiations deeply wounded, angering fellow EU leaders and getting no trade-offs for British interests.
“This is going to cost the UK dearly,” said one senior EU official. “They have antagonised everyone.”
Mr Cameron defended his hard-line stance in a hastily-called news conference following the summit, and insisted that he had not ruptured relationships with his counterparts.
“I had to pursue very doggedly what was in British national interest,” Mr Cameron said. “It is sometimes the right thing to say, ‘I cannot do that, it is not in our national interest, I don’t want to put that in front of my parliament because I don’t think I can recommend it with a clear conscience, so I am going to say no and exercise my veto’.”
Esto sólo puede interpretarse como la primera fisura importante no ya en el euro, sino en la UE. Todo eso, obviamente, sería pecata minuta en un auge económico, pero es que se reúnen angustiados precisamente porque ellos nos han metido en una depresión. Inglaterra, Suecia, son países de peso, que ya se han escapado de la gatera del euro, y ahora no quieren ponerse otra vez cadenas que ya se han quitado para siempre.
El euro va bien cuando Alemania va mal y hay que bajar los tipos de interés. El euro va mal cuando Alemania va bien. Y va peor cuando Alemania, exultante, pretende imponer sus reglas. Insostenible.
Aparte de eso, lo que han acordado no le veo sentido. Los mercados parece que tampoco mucho. El bono italiano otra vez rozando el 7%. En cambio, el bono de Suecia -otro apetitoso refugio para escaldados- a 1,68%...
Claro, eso sí, declaraciones arrogantes de los nuevos servidores del nuevo gobierno. "España, en el núcleo duro"... Hombre, si el núcleo duro es el de 23... Hasta Grecia está!
Consignas, consignas, consignas... Ni un sólo pensamiento.
Aquí, Alberto Recarte, un buen comentario sobre la cumbre y sobre Rajoy y lo poco que ha hecho el PP hasta ahora. Rajoy se está perfilando como un vendedor de humo enlatado; va por ahí con su bote de humo, lo abre, y atufa a todos. Sus cohortes son mucho peores que él. Cospedal es un bluf, y Glez Pons, el otro día le ví explicando que los mercados son "como la leona que se lanza sobre al cuarto trasero de la gacela y la muerde y la araña porque ve que está débil, pero que si tú gestionas como es debido, la gacela no será atrapada por la leona... o algo así". No lo entendí bien porque me entró un descojone incontrolable. Vean (especialmente al final del video):

1 comentario:

João Marcus dijo...

Luis
I loved this:Euro va bien...
I translated and put in my post:
http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/?p=3900&preview=true