Suscribo

En In-credible!, un sarcástico comentario sobre las propuestas de Merkozy. Por cierto, si Ud se pregunta ¿por qué los mercados han acogido tan efusivamente las payasadas de estos dos?
Bueno, primero aclararé que no ha sido tanto: una subida de o,6% en cinco días no es para morirse. Segundo, no deben de ir también, cuando el BCE ha tenido que prestar 50 mm de $ (5 veces más de lo esperado) a través del swaps especial acordado con la Fed (aquí). Eso quiere decir, lisa y llanamente, que aquí no entra un dólar espontáneamente ni borracho.
Tercero, porque están creyendo que al día siguiente el BCE entraá a saco a comprar bonos. Y puede, pero no tanto.

Now, based on these new "pinky promises," the consensus view is that the ECB will step in very aggressively to set a ceiling on Italian and Spanish yields.  The logic is obvious and compelling - how could the ECB just sit there and preside over its own demise, right?  The fact that such a move would likely be illegal, would jeopardize the credibility of the ECB, and would establish tremendous moral hazard is discounted.  "It's not pretty, but it's got to be better than letting the Eurozone go under, right?"  From what we have seen so far in the negotiations over Greek debt, bonds held by the ECB would likely be senior debt, with private sector held bonds being immediately subordinated.  Oh, I forgot, the EU leaders also pinky promise that the private sector will no longer be at risk in any default scenario.  "Don't worry!  We'll be happy to have our domestic taxpayers absorb the losses on that foreign debt.  Seriously!"  (Edit:  BTW, if the ECB chooses to go down this path, it needs to go all in right up front.  Otherwise, the market will test its resolve.)

cuarto, destaco lo que dice el blog citado (que recomiendo lean entero):

"A final scatalogical remark, regarding the dog and pony show to rescue the Euro. The market rallied on Friday because someone suggested that the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) could be brought forward and combined with the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). As you (should) know, the EFSF is the temporary measure with 440 billion of lending capacity and funding via callable capital guarantees. The ESM is the permanent mechanism that was to replace the EFSF in 2013, and would have 500 billion of lending capacity funded by paid-in capital. It is quite clear from the ESM Treaty that the ESM was never supposed to be additive to the EFSF, as you can read below:

TRANSITIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

ARTICLE 34

Relation with EFSF lending

During the transitional phase spanning the period from June 2013 until the complete run-down of the EFSF, the consolidated ESM and EFSF lending shall not exceed EUR 500 000 million, without prejudice to the regular review of the adequacy of the maximum lending volume in accordance with Article 10. The Board of Directors shall adopt detailed guidelines on the calculation of the forward commitment capacity to ensure that the consolidated lending ceiling is not breached.

Los mercados se guían muchas veces por deseos e informaciones muy dudosas. Bueno, a veces no, siempre. Por eso pegan esos bandazos. Pero yo creía que estaba claro que el EFSF y el ESM no se superponían...
Más dura será la caída.