Despedida de Bernanke. Tono keynesiano

Discurso de cierre de la presidencia de Bernanke en la FED. Quiero destacar una parte del capítulo dedicado a la política monetaria, en el que habla de su relación con la fiscal.

To this list of reasons for the slow recovery--the effects of the financial crisis, problems in the housing and mortgage markets, weaker-than-expected productivity growth, and events in Europe and elsewhere--I would add one more significant factor--namely, fiscal policy. Federal fiscal policy was expansionary in 2009 and 2010. Since that time, however, federal fiscal policy has turned quite restrictive; according to the Congressional Budget Office, tax increases and spending cuts likely lowered output growth in 2013 by as much as 1-1/2 percentage points. In addition, throughout much of the recovery, state and local government budgets have been highly contractionary, reflecting their adjustment to sharply declining tax revenues. To illustrate the extent of fiscal tightness, at the current point in the recovery from the 2001 recession, employment at all levels of government had increased by nearly 600,000 workers; in contrast, in the current recovery, government employment has declined by more than 700,000 jobs, a net difference of more than 1.3 million jobs. There have been corresponding cuts in government investment, in infrastructure for example, as well as increases in taxes and reductions in transfers.

Although long-term fiscal sustainability is a critical objective, excessively tight near-term fiscal policies have likely been counterproductive. Most importantly, with fiscal and monetary policy working in opposite directions, the recovery is weaker than it otherwise would be. But the current policy mix is particularly problematic when interest rates are very low, as is the case today. Monetary policy has less room to maneuver when interest rates are close to zero, while expansionary fiscal policy is likely both more effective and less costly in terms of increased debt burden when interest rates are pinned at low levels. A more balanced policy mix might also avoid some of the costs of very low interest rates, such as potential risks to financial stability, without sacrificing jobs and growth.

No se puede ser más keynesiano. Por cierto, no se extrañen de UE Bernanke no coincide con el Greenspan del post anterior. Éste está más bien hablando d las secuelas largo plazo de la crisis. Bernanke esta hablando del cortísimo plazo.

Así lo explica Krugman:

A brief addendum to my last post. If 2014 is a year of relatively good growth, you know that many people will take that as somehow refuting Keynesianism — hey, didn’t you guys predict that the economy would never recover without fiscal stimulus?

No, we didn’t:

In the long run, we will have a spontaneous economic recovery, even if all current policy initiatives fail. On the other hand, in the long run …

The fact that things eventually turn up is neither a refutation of Keynesian analysis, nor a reason to excuse the vast economic and human costs of bad policy to date — just as it’s not a vindication of austerity policies in the UK.