El euro, visto por sí mismo (por los eurocratas)

Daniel Hannan, en el Telegraph:

Resulta que en sus documentos internos la UE reconoce que la autonomía monetaria es mejor que la integración en un moneda única. Hablando de Islandia, como dice Hannan,

I’ve just been reading the EU’s report on relations with Iceland, marked “for internal use only”. Although its tone reflects the official line – looking forward to a resumption of accession talks if and when Iceland comes to its senses – the details tell a very different story. First, the paper acknowledges the main reason that Iceland has bounced back from the banking crisis:

"The small Nordic country has largely recovered from its deep economic crisis, thanks to a devaluated [sic] currency and a strong trade surplus — a turnaround that was made possible in part by the country’s distance from the euro area."

Then comes the really telling passage. Discussing Iceland’s trading profile, the report notes that that frozen lump of volcanic tundra has the twin advantages of small size and few “defensive interests”. Defensive interests is a term used by trade officials to mean “sectors which a country wants to shield from competition”. In trade talks, negotiators distinguish between offensive interests (areas where they want the other party to open its markets) and defensive ones (areas where they want to prevent liberalisation). Iceland, being an open economy, has relatively few protectionist sectors. As the report notes:

"This has made easier to conclude free trade agreement with bigger trade partners. The most recent FTA concluded on 15 April 2013 between Iceland and China, is expected to boost exports to China while eliminating tariffs on import of manufactured goods. It is the first free trade agreement concluded by a European country China. A second one was concluded by Switzerland in July."

En suma, que con la crisis tan seria que tuvo Islandia, le vino muy bien devaluar para salvarse y estar ya recuperada, y ser libre para negociar con China. Eso si, en un documento para uso interno "only". ¿Que hubiera pasado con Islandia sí estuviera en el Euro? Pues estaría en la situación de Grecia, o Irlanda, un País más comparable, pues ambos han sufrido una crisis bancaria. En los gráficos, un vistazo a ambos países en sus fundamentos. Islandia ha crecido más, tiene menos deuda, y mucho menos paro. Un nuevo caso en que lo pequeño es mejor que lo agregado a la fuerza.