"How can I know what I think until I read what I write?" – Henry James


There are a few lone voices willing to utter heresy. I am an avid follower of Ilusion Monetaria, a blog by ex-Bank of Spain economist (and monetarist) Miguel Navascues here.
Dr Navascues calls a spade a spade. He exhorts Spain to break free of EMU oppression immediately. (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard)

jueves, 26 de febrero de 2015

Alemania: Nein. Grecia: μη

Sobre el asunto Grecia, los ánimos, lejos de apaciguarse, se están distanciando las posiciones a gran velocidad, tanto entre las dos partes en litigio como dentro de cada una.

Por un aparte, el gobierno de Grecia está cada vez más cuestionado por sus propios partidarios, y hay ministros que dicen no van a cumplir el programa de reformas presentado a la UE.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,

"Greece's Left-wing Syriza government has vowed to block plans to privatise strategic assets and called for sweeping changes to past deals, risking a fresh clash with the eurozone's creditor powers just days after a tense deal in Brussels.
"We will cancel the privatisation of the Piraeus Port," said George Stathakis, the economy minister. "It will remain permanently under state majority holding. There is no good reason to turn it into a private monopoly, as we made clear from the first day.
"The deal for the sale of the Greek airports will have to be drastically revised. It all goes to one company. There is no way it will get through the Greek parliament."
The new energy minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis, warned that Syriza will not sell the Greek state's 51pc holding of the electricity utility PPC, power grid ADMIE or state gas company DEPA. "There will be no energy privatisations," he said.
It is already becoming clear that Syriza's leadership does not accept a strict, minimalist reading of the Eurogroup text, and is relying on quiet assurances from Brussels and Paris that it has friends in the EU.
Por otra parte, esta actitud de rebelión está agudizando la fuga de depósitos de Grecia, con una salida de 12 mm € en enero, otros 10 mm € en febrero, hasta un nivel de depósitos tan bajo como el de agosto 2005. Los bancos griegos, además, se enfrentan a un índice de morosos - Non Perfoming Loans (NPL) - del 40%.
Tyler Durden,

Moments ago the Bank of Greece presented its latest, January, deposit data. And it's a doozy: following a record €12.2 billion monthly outflow, greater in absolute and relative terms than anything experienced during any of the previous Greek crises and bailouts, the total amount of Greek corporate and household deposits has now tumbled to just €148 billion, down 7.7% from the month before, and down 10% since November. This number is in line with some of the more pessimistic expectations, and brings the total cash holdings at Greek banks to the lowest level since August 2005.
What's worse is that the outflow has most certainly continued in February, when according to rumors another €10 billion or more may have been withdrawn. And while the new FinMin is desperate to make it seem that now that Greece has a can kicking bailout extension "deal" the bank run has stopped, this is very much in doubt.
One thing is certain: Greek banks, already crushed by record NPLs somewhere in the 40% range, and without any equity buffer, are now all, without exception, dead banks walking following this latest cash rush. And absent another bailout - one which S&P calculated in October will need to fund Greece with more than €40 billion in additional cash - and one which will come with even more draconian conditions, we simply don't see how Greece gets away from its current "self-reinforcing feedback loop" predicament without Cyprus-style capital controls.
Esto, por su parte, está retroalimentando el rechazo frontal de los alemanes a seguir prestando dinero a Grecia, en medio de una feroz campaña de prensa que refleja el sentir de la mayoría de la opinión pública, como se puede ver de nuevo en Tyler Durden,
Una prueba más de que en el mundo, los problemas, como decía Isaías Berlin, no siempre tienen una única solución.




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