Larry Summers, perspectivas

Summers hace un análisis extenso y ponderado de cómo interpretar las recientes caídas de las bolsas y de las materias primas. Se desprende de él que el crecimiento de China en lao últimos años se ha concentrado en servicios financieros y en construcción (publica y privada), lo cual tiene toda la pinta de una burbuja insostenible. La presiones contra el Remimbi provienen de una salida creciente de capitales, lo que es en sí mismo el mejor indicador de cómo va a ir una economía en el futuro. Antaño, las economías desarrolladas se defendían con eficacia de estas turbulencias, pero, como hemos visto, hoy están mal pertrechadas y cargadas de deudas. Larry Summers:

Market signals should be taken especially seriously when they are long-lasting and coming from many markets, as is the case with current indications that inflation will not reach target levels within a decade in the United States, Europe or Japan. Especially ominous are moments when news fails to rally markets as would be expected such as with the U.S. stock market and Friday’s strong employment report or the decline of oil prices in the face of heightened Middle East tensions.

Last week we saw huge negative movements in Chinese markets and a large foreign market response. While it certainly could be the case that the Chinese developments reflect a combination of market psychology and clumsy policy responses, and that the strong response of world markets is an example of transient contagion, I doubt it.

Over the past year, about 20 percent of China’s growth as reported in its official statistics has come from its financial-services sector, which has mushroomed to the point where it is about as large relative to national GDP as in Britain, and Chinese debt levels are extraordinarily high. This is hardly a case of healthy or sustainable growth.

In recent years, China’s growth has come heavily from massive infrastructure investment; indeed, China put in place more cement and concrete between 2011 and 2013 than the United States did in the whole of the 20th century. This growth, too, is unsustainable, and even if it is replaced by domestic services, China’s contribution to demand for global commodities will fall way off.

Experience suggests that the best indicators of a country’s economic prospects are the decisions that its citizens make about keeping capital at home or exporting it abroad. The reason the renminbi is under pressure is that Chinese citizens are extremely eager to move their money overseas. But for the substantial recent depletion of China’s reserves, the renminbi would already have substantially depreciated.

Traditionally, international developments have had only a limited impact on the U.S. and European economies because their impact could be offset by monetary policy actions. Thus, the U.S. economy grew robustly through the Asian financial crisis as the Fed brought interest rates down. With rates essentially at zero in the industrial countries, however, this option is no longer available, and foreign economic problems are likely to have much more direct effects on economic performance.

- See more at: http://larrysummers.com/2016/01/11/heed-the-fears-of-the-financial-markets/#sthash.sLSfRCbZ.dpuf

En todo caso, esos movimientos de capital se harán cada vez más selectivos, lo que redundará en beneficio de unos y perjuicio de otros. Que la Zona Euro, en su conjunto y cada uno de sus miembros, sufra muchas turbulencias o no, depende de la reacción de las autoridades, que, es de temer, serán tardías y escasas.