Krugman y el Brexit

Excelente artículo de Paul Krugman sobre el Brexit. Expone fríamente las posibles consecuencias económicas, por lo que él votaría BRemain. pero luego analiza las razones por las que se ha llegado a esto. Se ha llegado por el fracaso de la UE, como explico aquí, aquí, y aquí, donde analizo las razones de las dos posturas, Brexit o BRemain, basándome en opiniones ponderadas y significativas. No he visto en España hacer un esfuerzo así de frío análisis; todo ha sido partidista según lo que dijera el partido al que apoya el medio y el periodista de turno. Una vergüenza. Para llorar. No me extraña que el 26 tengamos que elegir entre la nada y el vacío. Es lo que hay en el cerebro achicharrado de nuestros políticos, que alimentan a estos medios, que a su vez susurran gilipolleces al oído de los políticos. Por cierto que sigo viendo una carga explosiva enorme a esas dos fechas, el 23 y el 26. Pero en España solo hablamos del 26. El 26 será muy distinto según lo que ocurra el 23. Pocas veces se ha daso tal conjunción de riesgos. Por cierto, Brexit no es de derechas retrógrada: muchos dicen defender al democracia británica, y les creo. Ambrose EP, por ejemplo. 

En todo caso, Creo que Krugman consigue una síntesis perfecta. 

More important, however, is the sad reality of the E.U. that Britain might leave.

The so-called European project began more than 60 years ago, and for many years it was a tremendous force for good. It didn’t only promote trade and help economic growth; it was also a bulwark of peace and democracy in a continent with a terrible history.

But today’s E.U. is the land of the euro, a major mistake compounded by Germany’s insistence on turning the crisis the single currency wrought into a morality play of sins (by other people, of course) that must be paid for with crippling budget cuts. Britain had the good sense to keep its pound, but it’s not insulated from other problems of European overreach, notably the establishment of free migration without a shared government.

You can argue that the problems caused by, say, Romanians using the National Health Service are exaggerated, and that the benefits of immigration greatly outweigh these costs. But that’s a hard argument to make to a public frustrated by cuts in public services — especially when the credibility of pro-E.U. experts is so low.

For that is the most frustrating thing about the E.U.: Nobody ever seems to acknowledge or learn from mistakes. If there’s any soul-searching in Brussels or Berlin about Europe’s terrible economic performance since 2008, it’s very hard to find. And I feel some sympathy with Britons who just don’t want to be tied to a system that offers so little accountability, even if leaving is economically costly.

The question, however, is whether a British vote to leave would make anything better. It could serve as a salutary shock that finally jolts European elites out of their complacency and leads to reform. But I fear that it would actually make things worse. The E.U.’s failures have produced a frightening rise in reactionary, racist nationalism — but Brexit would, all too probably, empower those forces even more, both in Britain and all across the Continent.

Obviously I could be wrong about these political consequences. But it’s also possible that my despair over European reform is exaggerated. And here’s the thing: As Oxford’s Simon Wren-Lewis points out, Britain will still have the option to leave the E.U. someday if it votes Remain now, but Leave will be effectively irreversible. You have to be really, really sure that Europe is unfixable to support Brexit.

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So I’d vote Remain. There would be no joy in that vote. But a choice must be made, and that’s where I’d come down.