"How can I know what I think until I read what I write?" – Henry James


There are a few lone voices willing to utter heresy. I am an avid follower of Ilusion Monetaria, a blog by ex-Bank of Spain economist (and monetarist) Miguel Navascues here.
Dr Navascues calls a spade a spade. He exhorts Spain to break free of EMU oppression immediately. (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard)

domingo, 2 de septiembre de 2012

¿Qué quiere Münchau?

Al fin sé con certeza lo que busca Münchau, el columnista del FT que ha alardeado toda la vida de estar al favor del euro. pues el euro que el tiene en mente es sencillamente imposible, o se esconde detrás de una mentira. Si no, ¿Cómo se pude decir esto?

Mario Draghi reminded us in an essay in Germany’s Die Zeit that the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has been closing down an average of 90 banks per year.
The EU has a lot further to go in deleveraging and recapitalising. And yet, the Spanish government continues to insist that there should not be a single bank closure. The purpose of a banking union is not symbolism, it is to restructure and recapitalise the banking system, and to share financial risk. The eurozone is not sustainable without it.
Even Mr Barnier’s proposal, far-reaching as it may be, will not be sufficient. A banking union requires more than just an agreement on a central regulator. It would have huge implications for national law. For as long as national insolvency and labour laws diverge, the central regulator cannot just walk in and fire directors, or close down a bank. The banking union needs to be backed by a harmonisation of commercial and labour laws as they apply to banks – or better still, it should take the banks completely out of national jurisdiction.
If I had one piece of advice for Mr Draghi, it would be this: do not accept an unlimited bond purchasing programme without an agreement on a credible banking union. The issues are not directly linked, but without a stabilisation of the financial sector, no ECB bond purchasing programme can succeed in the long run.
Primero dice que sin unión bancaria el euro no sobrevivirá. Pero, atención, luego desvela que SU unión bancaria no es solo un tema e centralizar la supervisión, sino de unificar leyes nacionales; pero todas, laborales incluidas. Puede que tenga razón, pero entonces... De nuevo la eterna pregunta:¿Por qué no haber empezado por ahí?
Y para rematar, dice que le aconseja a Draghi que no compre deuda española hasta que no salga tal proyecto de unión ¿Totalitaria? Jajajaja, la verdad es que cada día salen más ocurrencias que desvelan que "el rey está desnudo".

En otras palabras, los días están contados.

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