"How can I know what I think until I read what I write?" – Henry James


There are a few lone voices willing to utter heresy. I am an avid follower of Ilusion Monetaria, a blog by ex-Bank of Spain economist (and monetarist) Miguel Navascues here.
Dr Navascues calls a spade a spade. He exhorts Spain to break free of EMU oppression immediately. (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard)

jueves, 2 de abril de 2015

La Era Minsky

Minsky summarized his own views in the section of his Stabilizing an Unstable Economy titled “Economic Theory,” in three densely packed chapters. For him the bottom line is that:


Today’s standard economic theory is largely a creature of the years since World War II. It integrates some aspects of Keynes’s theories with the older classical analysis that he believed he was replacing. This neoclassical synthesis now guides economic policy. (Minsky 2008/ 1986, 110).

Standard economic theory not only does not lead to an explanation of instability as a system attribute, it really does not recognize that endogenous instability is a problem that a satisfactory theory must explain. (ibid., 109).

Keynes’s investment theory of business cycles and his financial theory of investment in the face of uncertainty were lost as the standard interpretation of Keynes’s General Theory evolved into today’s ortho- dox theory. ... [Keynes’s] understanding into basic relations guiding our economy was reduced by the interpreting economists who followed into a banal set of prescriptions for guiding aggregate output. (ibid., 133).

I have characterized Keynes’ accomplishment as the development of an investment theory of the determination of income and a financial (monetary) theory of investment. (Minsky 1975).

In the modern (Friedman, Lucas, etc.) versions of the Quantity Theory monetary variables are allowed into the model, but always in such a way that they can lead only to transitory disturbances of the equi- librium values of variables, but they cannot permanently affect the equilibrium values. (Minsky 1996a, 72). 


[A] capitalist economy is inherently flawed because its investment and financing processes introduce endogenous destabilizing forces. The markets of a capitalist economy are not well suited to accommodate specialized, long-lived, expensive capital assets. ... The activities of Wall Street and the inputs of bankers to production and investment are not integrated into, but are added onto, the basic allocation-oriented theory. (Minsky 2008/1986, 320). 


This means that a lack of synchronization between contractual pay- ments on debts and receipts from operations can be built into the banker-business relation as positions in long-lived assets are financed by short-term liabilities.
Capitalism may very well work best when capital assets are cheap and simple. Instability may very well be exacerbated as production be- comes more capital intensive and as the relative cost and gestation periods of investment goods increase, for in such a capitalist economy financing arrangements are likely to appear in which debtors pay debts not with cash derived from income production but with cash obtained by issuing debt. (Minsky 2008/1986, 222) 

De June Flanders 

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